LIFE IN THE TIME OF CORONAVIRUS TOPIC TWO

BLACK SWAN EVENTS, THE SURVIVAL INSTINCT, AND PANIC BUYING

Put the kettle on, this is a long post of nearly 2000 words.

A black swan event. (from Investopedia, I’ve underlined the relevant bits) A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.

Except really, in hindsight, most ‘black swan events’ could have and should have been foreseeable with a bit of common sense applied. Including the ‘sudden’ appearance of a novel deadly virus. Indeed, WHO and the American CDC have been warning of a ‘VirusX’ with the potential to be the very definition of a black swan – if that’s not predictable, nothing is.

We could have and we should have prepared for a black swan event – we didn’t (well, my family did, and other families as well, but not enough of them and certainly not our so-called governments judging by the blind panic dithering we’re seeing) and that’s why I believe we are in the midst of what could be termed a black swan event.

There we all were plodding along our daily lives, business essentially as usual. But in late November 2019 hints of a previously unrecognised type of pneumonia began to trickle out of China. To those of us accustomed to watching for the growing signs of black swan events, the reports were concerning. Some of us began stocking our store cupboards with a bit more than our usual ‘let’s keep at least three months supplies on hand’ thinking. And gathering medical supplies needed to home nurse. And checking investments and other financial instruments. Just in case.

By mid-December the trickle of reports included the information this strange new pneumonia was actually quite deadly and very difficult to treat. By January 2020 the trickle of reports began to be a steady stream including reports medical professionals expressing concern were being arrested and ‘questioned’ for ‘spreading rumours’ and inciting panic.

By February it was obvious something really quite serious was happening in China. By late February the stream of reports became an overflowing river then a flood of horrific credible rumours Chinese dying by the thousands, and of mass 24/7 cremations to dispose of the bodies. ‘Heat maps’ began to appear on Western websites. The one Johns Hopkins has up is now considered the go-to for as up-to-date as is possible data. And as of this date (16 march 2020), the data is coming in so fast the site is not updating quite as reliably as it originally was.

By early March everyone with an Internet connection and an addiction to news had seen the videos being smuggled out of China showing exhausted medical professionals, piles of body bags, masked Chinese people, and dead bodies on the pavements clearly laid there after death by family or friends for the body to be removed by the authorities.

The survival instinct. Most living creatures have it, from the lowest amoeba to the ‘highest order’ homo sapiens. It usually kicks in as ‘fight or flight’ at a moment of perceived imminent threat to life and could be described as a panicked dash to perceived safety.

As an instinct it is rather difficult to overcome and indeed when I was at uni training in psychology we were taught instincts are vital to survival and it is a sign of a decaying civilisation when instincts are overcome. I was also taught the survival instinct can be expressed in ways not ordinarily recognised as the actual instinct.

I went to uni back when dinosaurs roamed and panic buying wasn’t really on anyone’s radar. Particularly professors charged with the training of what was then called ‘aberrant human behaviour’ psychologists and now called ‘criminal psychologists’ or ‘forensic psychologists’.

‘Panic buying’. After living through many natural and manmade disasters I’ve come to realise panic buying is a type of survival instinct kicking in. It happens when weather threatens, it happens after a ‘moderate earthquake’ frightens people into thinking (sometimes rightly) The Big One or at least a bigger one, is imminent. It happens when the stock markets fall, when mass lay-offs happen, when civil unrest crops up or wars appear a week or less away.

And it happens when a novel virus rears its nasty head, and people start dying in horrible ways in alarmingly high numbers. (Please keep your ‘the flu kills thousands every year’ thinking to yourself. We know about the flu. We can treat it and the only reason it kills the way it does is down to not getting to medical care in time, nothing more)  

FROM WHERE WE’RE SITTING: Paul has been following the coronavirus crisis with the same dedication as I have. He’s seen the photos and video clips of what can only best be described as crazed mobs ‘doing the weekly shop’ (honestly some of the film I’ve seen looks just like looters after a hurricane) – and he’s taken to calling it ‘pandemic buying’ rather than ‘panic buying’.

My son lives and works in the USA for a ‘Big Box’ retail chain. His responsibility is the ‘fresh’ department which includes produce, deli, bakery, and meat. In the course of his working day he sees what’s coming in, what’s going into trolleys, and what is being left as unwanted. He also works his way around the entire store to see what else is selling or not.

He tells me there is considerable ‘panic buying’ going on of all sorts – his department is seeing mince (ground beef and other meats) selling ‘like hotcakes on Shrove Tuesday’. He tells me hand sanitiser gel bottles are selling but what is being stripped off the shelf immediately on being stocked is isopropyl alcohol – people remember the H1N1 scandal of contaminated hand sanitiser gels and are buying up 70-90% IA to use as disinfectant that can be poured into small spray bottles to carry instead of the gel they’ve decided not to quite trust. Likewise, bleach, toilet paper and paper towels – flying off the shelves. Food items like tinned foods of all types, dried pasta mixes (mac and cheese, pot noodles, etc), dried beans, rice…I asked him ‘How is your disaster cupboard looking’ and I was greatly relieved to hear he’s not only fully stocked in his, but he’s ensured his ex (mother of his only child) is also fully stocked.

They rotate and restock so they’re never caught without no matter what happens short of what used to be called a ‘Biblical scale disaster’. Like Paul and I, they’re prepared for long periods of ‘self-quarantine and/or the grid to go down – in addition to non-perishable foods, they both have BBQs and charcoal stored and all their daily uses pots, pans, and bakeware can be used on a barbie. Aluminium foil is also stocked for making parcels to go on the barbie.

I taught him well – but really I think in my family preparedness is in the genes.

Here in the UK as in other countries including the USA, the panic buying is near madness in the shops. Here in the UK a man was mugged last week as he left a shop – watch and wallet left on his arm and in his pocket, what was taken was one of the two packs of toilet roll he was carrying. Several photos are making the rounds online and on telly screens of American and Australian women fighting one another for ‘the last pack’ in the supermarket, including one report of a woman threatening another with a knife for that pack of toilet roll.  

Paul and I, and my family, are not smug at our preparedness – we wish every family would do the same. It really is not hard to do, and it’s not as costly as people think. A little extra every time is all it really takes.

There are numerous websites including ‘official’ ones like FEMA and the Red Cross in the USA, and Gov.UK here with suggestions and tips for keeping an emergency store cupboard (pantry in the USA). Excellent information there and should be the first place people look rather than ‘doomer’ sites (OMFG, InfoWars should be removed soon as, and so should ZeroHedge!).

But in general, and as a quick guide to preparedness – buy what you eat and use. To build your stocks for example, if you usually only buy one tin of corn, buy two the first time, use one then next time you shop buy two more tins. Extend that thinking to all your routine grocery and supplies shopping, and to off-grid cooking-cleaning (including yourself).

And ffs, keep and rotate a one month supply of enough water for everyone in your house to have enough for a day of drinking-washing-cooking. It’s a simple enough formula and you don’t need to be a maths genius to work out by observation how much water you need to get through a day and then multiply it by number of people in the house by thirty (or sixty if you have the space to store that much).

Finally, give special consideration to your home medical supplies. Store ‘normal’ first aid supplies like plasters (band-aids), elasticated wraps (I. Love. My. Ace Bandages!), antiseptic-burn-wound healing ointments, creams, and topical ointments (iodine preparations are a MUST-HAVE). Lob in a good field manual (I like the Survival Doc ones but the army ones are very good) and read it through BEFORE you need it in an emergency.

Learn CPR. And if you think you might have the stomach for it, consider learning beyond basic first aid skills like coping with a simple fracture (and the needed supplies), and suturing a wound.

Download reliable information on whatever the current health threat is, print those downloads out and keep them in a 3-ring binder for quick reference when someone in the house appears to be coming down with symptoms. The download print-outs should include home nursing information.

We are currently in a declared pandemic of a novel virus that is killing people – young and old although for now primarily the older and those with ‘underlying conditions’. Health care facilities in countries with large numbers of severely ill are being overwhelmed and here in the UK at least we’re now being advised home-care is the best way forward unless the case turns severe.

And we’re being told sadly patients who become severely unwell will be triaged. Older people, people with those underlying conditions, older people with multiple underlying conditions and those who arrive to hospital so severely unwell they’re not considered in a survivable condition WILL NOT BE TREATED.

Once upon a time people in all conditions of life became ‘dangerously unwell’ – but somehow managed to survive without more than dedicated home-nursing. We did the best we could and sometimes Grandpa survived a seemingly hopeless case of pneumonia. Give serious thought to learning how home-nursing was successful in those cases.

Learn now.